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The
Cancer of Growth
What makes your brain tick?
According to researchers, the parts of your body, if you don't use it you lose
it, particularly your brain. The more you use it the more logical and brainier you
are. Could that be true?
The Cancer of Growth
An organic life form has a time span, that growth span is the phase
of life - yet the credit crunch had reveal interesting logic, why so few nations escape
the crunch?
The fact of exponential growth in time for quantity to increase in
size has a fixed constant, time is the factor in this quantity.
And as the size increase (say 100%) its complexity in
trading and its simplicity by nature which multiplies much more than the
corresponding increases in wealth.
Economic Growth or Creative Destruction
The main implication of this trade theory is that policies which
embrace openness and competition, as well as changes and innovation will promote
growth and wealth.
But the endogenous growth theory (the new growth theory) demonstrated that
policy measures can have cancerous impacts on the long term growth of any
economy, and ultimately her people are paying for the mistakes of the
oligopolistic policies.
Attempts in make financial markets more efficient and transparent can
create the illusions of risk elimination and uncertainty, and disguising
unavoidable uncertainty and hiding its true cost of the problem, according to
the author of the book Capitalism 4.0 suggested.
Bankers can use the integrated financial systems as a form of political
patronage, because banks are effectively public sector financial institutions
which cannot be allowed to go bankrupt in the 21st Century economy.
Hence by the late 20th Century, with its global economic and
population growth policies, fewer
wealthy nations were created and very many poor nations emerged.
And lead to the raise of new emerging nations questioning that modus of
operandi - how this transitions from
subsistence or resource base to production and consumption base economic
power-house policy occurred ? The than hidden crisis of this credit crunch
was in the making.
Can anyone sense this hidden crisis in the population growth and economic boom
times, how emerging nations matured, leading to exporting capability surplus
outcry at the turn of the 21st century.
What is a credit crunch?
A credit crunch is generally caused by a reduction in the market price of previously
over inflated assets, and the easy credit which defers the financial crisis that resulted from the
price collapse.
The relationship between credit availability and interest rate has implicitly
changed that credit became less available at official
interest rate, or there ceases to have a relationship between interest rate
and credit availability, hence credit rationing occurs.
Concept of Growth
The modern conception of economic growth began with the critique of
mercantilism in the early periods, Western nations had developed
this idea, that economies could grow to produce a greater economic
surplus which could then be expended on something other than mere subsistence.
That argument was based on, if more money change hands, and the price of
individual goods remain relatively stable, then that would be proof that there can be
more productive capacity, therefore more capital, because only capital can
allow for more goods to be made at a much lower cost per unit.
Hence the purpose of government policies since was to encourage economic
activity, in other words increase the GDP and thus wealth to the
nation, without creating much inflation.
These surplus could then be used for consumption, warfare, civic and religious
projects, based on the view that an ever increasing population and tax
rates can generate more surplus money for the expansion.
But the calculation of the GDP was a Type-1 error of a false-positive growth, the error of rejecting a null hypothesis when it is actually true, that natural
capita must be part of the GDP, then we have an accounting anomaly
of enormous proportions when natural capita was ignored.
For example, the ‘New World’ was a rich source of huge resources
for the than Imperial powers, which enabled them to take-off with such
enormous economic successes; natural capita without those colonies since
accounts for the anomalies collapses.
Nomenclature
Mankind blindly believe in nomenclature, because historically economic success has a close correlation between growth
and the climate, the mechanism between the two may spur in early human activity that
economies, as well as cultural development always concentrated on warmer part of the
world, examples of such as China, India or Egypt.
The predicted rate of economic growth has important implications for climate
change policy, thus the trade-off between carbons based economic growth and the
expected adverse impact on climate, partially acceptable consequences for this growth.
The concept was notable because in post war macro economic climates,
inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive; and also because
stagflation had generally proven to be difficult and costly to eradicate once it
gets started.
But stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic
stagnation occur simultaneously.
Since the decision-making process and procedures of the international
economic institutions (such as IMF, GATT, WTO, OECD, etc) was in the hands of the
West, the predictable ploy was to apply 'Beggar thy neighbour' economic
policies to benefit the developed Western nations at the expense of the third
world.
Over time, this approach established a near-monopoly on purse-strings to
emerging economies around the world, and came to be known as the Washington
consensus. And as a result 21 more third world and developing nation states
experienced decades-long declines in social and economic indicators by 1990s
compared with just four in the 1980s.
In a 2006 United Nations GDP report indicated that no fewer than 100 nations, all developing or in
transitions have experienced serious economic decline over the past three
decades. As a result, per capita income in these 100 countries is lower than it
was 30 years ago. Who was manipulating trade and currencies then?
Modern Economic Concept
Stagflation can only result when an economy is slowed by an unfavourable supply shock,
such as an increase in the basic price of natural resources, which tend to
raise price that slow the economy by making production
less profitable.
And the supply shock model, higher prices will prompt increases in the supply of
goods and services, thus explore further into natural Earth resources to supply
an ever increasing demand-pull in a population growth economy.
In that resource scarcity scenario, stagflation results when
economic growth is inhibited by a restricted supply of raw materials.
And the demand-pull stagflation theory only explore the idea that
stagflation results
exclusively from monetary shock without any concurrent supply shock or
negative shift in economic output potential.
But the current economic crisis had already unfolded in the turn of this 21st
century, where PR is a scientific skill. Solutions that are urgently needed to
be implemented would harm corporate image, spin doctors persuade each other that
profit-depleting actions are unnecessary - a clever falsification of the
scientific term was need.
Inflation as it was known, but some smart ass had coined another
term 'Agflation' to describe the agricultural led inflation due to seasonal
commodity price changes, because in modern economy, agricultural prices are not factored
into the core inflation figures, and merely a term for seasonal
demand drove up core inflation rate.
The simplexes of growth base on consumption rather than savings is synonymous
with obesity cushioned by occasional dosage of loan bonds and
the racemic mixture of policies to stabilize growth has a cancerous
ingredient to the economy.
However, the implication on growth base on tax and ever increasing population in a
demand-pull economy is a complexes cycle, which ultimately led to
scarcity, that the natural Earth can sustain.
But the important questions are more basic:
Is growth really a good thing?
Is bigger really better?
Is it true that if we don't grow we will stagnate? |
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In answering these questions, bear in mind that the human growth in the early
phase of life is called adolescence, and that continues normally through
to physical growth, then stopped.
When physical maturity is reached - your purpose of life span had begun. What do we say to this growth that continues in
this period of physical maturity?
We say that such a growth is Obesity, or worse Cancer, diseases that comes from within rather than being caused by external
sources.
These are the natural limits of growth; it’s that emphasis on growth caused
the cancerous crisis in the first place. The importance of maintaining nature’s
environmental sources and development are inextricably interlinked.
If we can't cure brain death, at least try to prevent it from dying, a
population based demand-pull economic growth ultimately exceed natural Earth
sustainability --
that is endogenous growth by self-mutation of cancer cells to exogenous
destructions.
The true nature of exponential growth does not
reveal itself until variable rates of growth are considered. Recent credit crisis provides not only a warning but also an opportunity
for a stable economic growth, as well as sustainable development in order to
achieve true security.
Author
©Copyright
03/09/2010
All rights reserved.
Mantra: You can't cure brain death but you can prevent it from dying.
Notes:
(1) John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)
the 20th-century British economist argues that private sector decisions
sometimes led to inefficient macro economic outcomes and therefore advocates
active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions
and fiscal policies activity by the government to stabilize
output over the business cycle.
(2) The term 'defer' - easy credit by means of loan
bonds cushioned by emerging nations instead of reserve and savings.
The term 'capital' - refers to accumulated wealth.
The term 'natural capital' - refers to nature's resources.
A third of the world's natural resources were consumed
in the last three decades, most were consumed by the industrialised nations.
During the same decades, industrialized nations
contributed almost two-third of the world's solid waste tonnage, in addition to
a third attributed by the poor and developing nations.
The capital calculation of GDP was a Type-1 error of a
false-positive growth, the error of rejecting a null hypothesis when it is
actually true, that natural capita must be part of the GDP calculation.
GDP or GNP might mean a great deal to an economist, but they do not tell us
anything about the quality of life in a far remote village.
(3) The term 'racemic' mixture of policies is
synonymous with the left and right handedness of inactive enantiomer which
occasionally causes severe cancer of growth from within.
(4) Oligopoly - a form of imperfect competition caused
by occasional dosage of stability to bank earnings over time will come at a
cost, and that cost will ultimately be borne by the economy rather than the
banks.
Oligopoly quickly develops internal politics and agenda
without external competition. These organisations became inflexible and
bureaucratic, increasingly entangled in their own greed, layer upon layer of
procedures then added to solve problems that better policed would have prevented
in the first place.
(5) Endogenous growth theory stress that knowledge is
the determinant of economic growth - inappropriate government policies has a
cancerous ingredient, that theory emphasizes on private investment in R&D as the
central source for technical progress.
(6) Exogenous growth model stress on higher reserve and
savings as experienced by emerging nations such as China or India, with a
positive annual GDP net growth since 1980s.
The UN GDP reports in 2006: that no fewer than 100 countries - all developing
or in transition have experienced serious economic decline over the past three
decades. As a result, per capita income in these 100 countries is lower than it
was 30 years ago.
By 1990, 21 countries experience decade-long declines in social and economic
indicators, compared with only 4 in the 1980s.
The decision-making procedures of the international economic institutions
(such as IMF, GATT etc) favoured a small group of developed Western nations.
(7) Climate change policy - the Kyoto protocol was
designed to cap global warming, but emission
trading only benefit the seller.
If by selling more emissions could mitigate global warming, than selling
hunger would benefit the poor, what a tautology. Whilst avoiding the political sensitive issue of world
over population - see Bacterium in a jar paradigm.
Now that scientists have found that livestock alone
produce a third of the world's (about 37%) human induced methane, primarily from
our meat producing cattle, chicken or pig.
CH4 (methane) is a significant contributor to climate
change, and more than 50% of methane emission is human induced.
The Kyoto protocol seeks to regulate its emission, and if they
can reduce
global population by half, we can reduce methane emission by a quarter.
(8) The true nature of exponential growth does not
reveal itself until variable rates of growth are considered.
(9)
Wall Street journal, Monday 24/3/2008
Review of Development Challenges 2009,
Club of Rome
Club of Rome Agenda
Global Depopulation Programme
Population Control
Global Famine
(10) Bio-Capacity
The natural absorption rate of organic carbon in
the soil mantle is estimated 42 million tons annually. Human discharge of
organic carbon had reached 85 million tons per annum – doubled the earth's
natural absorption ability.
The volume of solid domestic waste discharged in the Earth’s biosphere has
reached a geological figure (landfill site figure), over 400 million tons per
year. Such an enormous amount of waste affects global geochemical cycles;
further contribute to the shifting in climates and trophic levels (food chains)
in the ecosystem.
(11) Since the 1960s, China has adopted a population
growth rate and food yield formula, based on population which sustains a
negative rate of growth will halve; and by 2050 both human induced emissions and
population issue can be significantly rectified. Recent world food crisis had already pay
dividend to an educated and prosper nation, a shock to the critics.
(12) In recent years, over population combine with
famine have sow the seed in seaborne piracy against transport vessels. Its a
warning shoot in the bulbous bow of what lay ahead. In a generation's time no military power
than can assure world security.
(13) Ecological Footprint
The term ‘ecological footprint’ is to let people know how much they consume of
nature’s resources and their waste discharged back on Earth.
In ancient agricultural civilization, the term 'mere subsistence' indicate 2-3
acres of arable land per head was need, in order to avoid the most gruesome
famines during draught, for a given population in that nation. (Arable land not
global hectares per capita)
In the 1950s, China is said to have an ecological deficit -- the number of acres
of arable land needed to support her population in case of draught, there was
massive famine. Since adopted the food yield and population growth formula, and
recent world food crisis has again proved the ancient wisdom.
In a research on ecology and agriculture at Cornell University and US
National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition study titled 'land, food and
population growth' indicated that the world will have to reduce her population
by two-third, the maximum sustainable ecology in the US is 200 million.
World Footprint
Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 Planet Earth to provide the resources we
use and absorb our waste discharged back on earth, that is -- it takes 1 year
and 4 months at today's rate.
In a generation's time, we will need the equivalent of two Planet Earths to
support our existing life style, while pH neutral water sources are depleting
fast due to food and population growth, and it's going to be a 'one world one
dream same nightmare' scenario.
(14) Ecological Footprint
In the case of coffee, about 25 million small farmers depend directly on coffee
production in over 50 countries. With increasing use of fertilisers and
pesticides since the 1980s, has led to over supply of coffee, as a result coffee
farmers’ income has declined by two-third (about 70%) by 2001.
(15) Little Ice Ages
The periods of little ice age began in the early 14th century, and flickered on
and off before peaking in late 17th century, and finally releasing its grip some
150 years ago.
At the height of the little ice age, the Baltic Sea froze over and there was
widespread famine across Europe. By 1420s Chinese surveying ships headed the
Arctic via the north coast of Greenland through to North America.
(16) Pseudoscience Tale
Pseudoscience tale of the ocean circulation system switch, that colder water
dissolves carbon dioxide faster than warmer water, in order to controlling the
ocean conveyer belt on/off switch.
And suggest the building of a city in Greenland, where human activities will
force the ancient glacial ice mountains down to sea, which is enough to lower
sea temperature worldwide, to restore climate equilibrium.
(17) Fodder or Animal Feed
The worldwide animal feed industry consumed 635 million tons of feed (compound
feed equivalent) in 2006, with an annual growth rate of about 2%.
What's the moral in these stories?
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