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Charity Starts From Home
What makes your brain tick?
According to researchers that the part of your body, if you don't use it you
lose it, particularly your brain, are there any true in it?
Food for thoughts...
Are rich nations immune from food crisis ?
And the global agriculture reform !
One of the most comforting thoughts -- per media unfolding orders on food
crisis, and its impacts on the poor, and the riots, somehow we are immune.
As dogma has it, that such food crisis is a blip, caused by the economic growth of emerging nations.
Are we blind by the media ?
Let's take India and China for example, both temperately suspend food exports,
except those that they can't afford to eat (such as Basmati), just because of droughts.
Are there any true in it ?
The sad fact is, what is true for food will be true for water, energy,
transport, homes and wastes, and other increasingly scarce natural resources, in
this increasing food consumption scenario, that the scientists had to highlight the
analogy with bacteria growth.
Bacterium grow by division, not unlike human being -- 1 and 1 makes 4, thus 2
more mouths to feed. Let's say each mouth takes a ton of food per annum for
example; major producers export all surplus food in exchange for other needs.
The world food crisis provides not only a warning but also an opportunity to examine
our sustainability in a rising population scenario, for a sustainable growth and
development in order to achieve true security. A sustainable growth, in which a
population remains stable, occurs only when the birth and death rates are equal.
But between now and 2050, the world’s population will increase by a third, and
the demand for food will increase by two-third, whilst the demand for meat will
double. Despite the largest grain harvest in history (in 2008), and amidst
global economic woes, food prices had gone up again.
The UN predicts global rise of food prices in the next ten years, with the
resumption of rapid economic growth backed by the continued population growth
issue; experts of the OECD mentioned in their 2010 annual report on the
agricultural supplies.
Of course, we can continue to increase the height of buildings, if population
doubled in the city, and doubled the number of bus on the road; but we can't
double what nature can sustain, in shifting trophic levels (food chains) and a
tilting biotic potential of the human species.
Ask yourself this simple question?
Suppose all food producing nations export their surplus without exponential gain
in arable land worldwide, in this raising food consumption scenario.
When would they stop exporting? There are six wheat exporting nations supplying
more than 100 countries that number of exporting nations will dwindle down
to three in a generation's time.
Much of the 3rd world produces most of the food they need but suffer
malnourishment, because much of what they produce was consumed by the rich
world. This 'free market famine' works up to a point, then the tables will be
turnaround – the 3rd world will want to consume their own produce again. With an
annual growth rate of about 2% for animal feed, a generation from now (or 35 years
from now), our livestock
will consume 1.3 billion tons of fodder (animal feed) alone.
China indeed has a secret formula for food yield and population growth ratio
that rich nations would sell their new born in exchange for a mouthful of her
surplus one day; whilst India secretly reforming its food yield, if her mouths continue to
ate a ton of food each per annum.
The true is, there is no secret formula in
China, such measures were historical necessity -- those who cannot remember the
past are condemned to repeat that food, water, and population growth issue hidden crisis.
Generation
Time |
Population
in Billion (increasing) |
Food Consumption
in Billion Ton |
Food Yield
in Billion Ton |
Surplus for Export in Billion Ton (estimate) |
|
1920 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
1940 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
|
1960 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
|
1980 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5 |
0.5 |
|
2000 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
|
2010 |
7 |
7 |
? |
? |
Common sense would tell us that a one-cubic centimetre cube, with a cross section
of one square centimetre, that is, if we cut one face of the cube, that face is
one square
centimetre.
And if we doubled the size of this cube -- the cube with two centimetres on each
sides, its cross-sectional area would be 2 x 2 (or 4) square centimetres thus its volume
will be 2 x 2 x 2 (or 8) cubic centimetres.
For the same density it would have four times the cross section and eight times
heavier. The true is its volume and weight multiplies much more than the
corresponding increases in cross-sectional areas, as the true nature of the
exponential growth in population does not reveal itself until variable rates of
growth are considered, the same principle apply to arability and population growth.
|
Population Growth Rate |
Population Doubled |
| @
1 % |
in
70 years |
|
@ 1.5 % |
in
47 years |
| @
2 % |
in
35 years |
|
@ 2.5 % |
in
28 years |
| @
3 % |
in
23 years |
|
@ 3.5 % |
in
20 years |
| @
4 % |
in
18 years |
Bacterium in a Jar Paradigm
The scientist's analogy with bacteria cannot be more explicit, facts are
researchers had asked you to consider the scenario, and outline the type of
hypothesized chain events - the inevitable disaster when the natural limits to
population growth exceeded the land carrying capacity.
If you were the responsible world leaders, when should you associate land, food, water and
population growth rate hidden agenda?
Can you sense the urgency at baby-boom years when food exporting nations had
million of tons surplus leading to food mountain outcry in the 1980s?
Or suppose one of you intelligent leader had stretched your status; accept the
hidden crisis and contingency ordered.
Would luck be on your side that global
warming did annihilate millions, you got a food mountain outcry on your hand
by 2010.
Suppose global warming didn't annihilate a soul, and you have prepared all
contingencies, and the world population than say @
4 billion -- causes you a food mountain crisis.
6 billion -- causes you a world food crisis.
What about 9 billion in a generation from now -- dietary?
Are we immune from food crisis? Charity starts from home.
We would be unrealistic to assume a continued increase in food supply to support
an exponentially growing population; as the true nature of the exponential growth in
population does not reveal itself until variable rates of growth are
considered.
It took nature tens of thousand of years to build up a population of one billion people
to the 1800s, but within our life time, world population had gone up 7 folds
today, and with a prediction of 9 folds by 2050.
By the law of nature, any population which sustains a negative rate of
growth will halve or any population which sustains a positive rate of growth
will double. Charity starts from home, such as China's
food and population growth rate formula.
The bacterium in a jar paradigm was the mathematical metaphor for a sustainable
population growth on Earth, since Mars is not Homo sapiens final frontier.
The economic growth in the West during the nineteenth century (1800s) has
stimulated massive Europeans emigration to overseas; the economic development of
the third world in the twentieth century (1900s) has stimulated immigration to
the West. It is a vicious population growth cycle.
Author
©Copyright
18/07/2010
All rights reserved.
Mantra: You can't cure brain death but you can prevent it from dying.
Appendix:
After the 14th century recurring Black Death pandemic (bubonic plague), the
world was
lucky once as a result of fertilizer advancements, but soon population exceed
food yields, and famine was then the recurring issue throughout Europe.
Even in those days people already trying to draw attention to the potential dangers of population growth
and food yield. Examples of such as reverend Thomas Malthus (1766 -1834).
Migration has always been Homo sapiens’ survival strategy, the great scale
migratory movement was unprecedented during the 19th century, as a result of
massive famines again throughout Europe, and deforested 4 out of 7 continents
for cattle and population growth.
According to the ancient agrarian records, historically, Chinese imperial navy
has been surveying the outside world every few hundred years.
Last
reported survey was about 500 years ago (or the Ming dynasty); indicate that there was no cause of
alarm.
Little Ice Ages
The periods of little ice age began in the early 14th century, and flickered on
and off before peaking in late 17th century, and finally releasing its grip some
150 years ago.
At the height of the little ice age, the Baltic Sea froze over and there was
widespread famine across Europe. By 1420s Chinese surveying ships headed the
Arctic via the north coast of Greenland through to North America.
Pseudoscience Tale
Pseudoscience tale of the ocean circulation system switch, that colder water
dissolves carbon dioxide faster than warmer water, in order to controlling the
ocean conveyer belt on/off switch.
And suggest the building of a city in Greenland, where human activities will
force the ancient glacial ice mountains down to sea, which is enough to lower
sea temperature worldwide, to restore climate equilibrium.
Bio-Capacity
The natural absorption rate of organic carbon in the soil mantle is estimated 42
million tons annually. Human discharge of organic carbon had reached 85 million
tons per annum – doubled the earth's natural absorption ability.
The volume of solid domestic waste discharged in the Earth’s biosphere has
reached a geological figure (landfill site figure), over 400 million tons per
year. Such an enormous amount of waste affects global geochemical cycles;
further contribute to the shifting in climates and trophic levels (food chains)
in the ecosystem.
Ecological Footprint
The term ‘ecological footprint’ is to let people know how much they consume of
nature’s resources and their waste discharged back on Earth.
In ancient agricultural civilization, the term 'mere subsistence' indicate 2-3
acres of arable land per head was need, in order to avoid the most gruesome
famines during draught, for a given population in that nation. (Arable land not
global hectares per capita)
In the 1950s, China is said to have an ecological deficit -- the number of acres
of arable land needed to support her population in case of draught, there was
massive famine. Since adopted the food yield and population growth formula, and
recent world food crisis has again proved the ancient wisdom.
In a research on ecology and agriculture at Cornell University and US National
Research Institute on Food and Nutrition study titled 'land, food and population
growth' indicated that the world will have to reduce her population by
two-third, the maximum sustainable ecology in the US is 200 million.
World Footprint
Today, humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 Planet Earth to provide the resources we
use and absorb our waste discharged back on earth, that is -- it takes 1 year
and 4 months at today's rate.
In a generation's time, we will need the equivalent of two Planet Earths to
support our existing life style, while pH neutral water sources are depleting
fast due to food and population growth, and it's going to be a 'one world one
dream same nightmare' scenario.
Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto protocol was designed to cap global warming, but common sense would tell us that emission
trading only benefit the seller.
If by selling more emissions could mitigate global
warming, than selling hunger would benefit the poor, as the irreplaceable phrase
say: I gave you the sky.
What has it given us don't already belong to us, whilst avoiding the
political sensitive issue of world over population issue - see
Bacterium in a Jar Paradigm
Perhaps the Iraqis did sacrifice themselves to mitigate
world population explosion.
Fodder or Animal Feed
The worldwide animal feed industry consumed 635 million tons of feed (compound
feed equivalent) in 2006, with an annual growth rate of about 2%.
Sustainable Earth
In the case of coffee, about 25 million small farmers depend directly on coffee
production in over 50 countries. With increasing use of fertilisers and
pesticides since the 1980s, has led to over supply of coffee, as a result coffee
farmers’ income has declined by two-third (about 70%) by 2001.
External
Source:
Global Research, April 30, 2008
Amid mounting
food crisis, governments fear revolution of the hungry analysis.
Media misled public on food crisis real reasons.
Global Famine May 2, 2008
|
Population
Explosion |
| 1800 Below 1 billion (estimated) |
| 1900 1.6 billion
|
| 1927 2 billion |
| 1950 2.55 billion |
| 1960 3 billion |
| 1970 3.7 billion |
| 1975 4 billion |
| 1980 4.5 billion |
| 1990 5.3 billion |
| 1999 6 billion |
| 2009 6.8 billion |
| 2010 7 billion
|
| 2020 7.6 billion
|
| 2050 9.2 billion |
| Data per world government statistics |
Notes:
(1) Poor farmer kept a ton of grain per adult on average.
(2) Population growth per world government research data.
(3) During the 1980s physics professor Albert A. Bartlett @ University of
Colorado highlighted the untimely analogy with bacteria growth and energy crisis.
(4) In the 1800s, we were lucky once as a result of fertilizer advancements, the estimated population than
not even 1 billion.
But even in those days people already trying to draw attention to the potential dangers of population growth. Examples of such as
reverend Thomas Malthus (1766 -1834)
(4a)
Wall Street Journal,
Monday 24/3/2008
(5) 7 billion ton figures could just be 8, 9 or 6 etc. there's a point we can't
increase agriculture landmass and natural Earth eco system, thus food output.
(6) Post world wars population increased on each
occasions, world war since proven not the solution to world population explosion. Charity
starts from home, examples such as China's food and population growth.
Since the 1960s, China has adopted a population
growth rate and food yield formula, based on population which sustains a
negative rate of growth will halve; and by 2050 both human induced emissions and
population issue can be significantly rectified. Recent food crisis had already pay
dividend to an educated and prosper nation, a shock to the critics.
(7) Kyoto protocol was designed to cap global
warming, but common sense tell us that emission trading only benefit the seller.
If by selling more emissions could mitigate global warming, than selling
hunger would benefit the poor, its tautology as this irreplaceable phrase say:
I gave you the sky.
What have they given us don't already belong to us, whilst avoiding the
political sensitive issue of world population explosion.
Then perhaps Iraqi did sacrifices themselves to mitigate
world population explosion.
Even Al Gore wondered why it took nature 10s of thousands
of years to built up a population of half a billion people, but within half of our
life time, world population had gone up to 6.77 billions today - see
Bacterium In A Jar Paradigm.
(8) Solar flares and Sunspot cycles as well as Earth axial
tilts are likely cycles of droughts on earth, tree-ring evidence indicated drought
periods on different parts of the earth within the cycles, next major solar
flares likely in 2012.
What's the moral in these stories?
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