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Bacterium in a Jar Paradigm
What makes your brain tick?
According to researchers, the parts of your body, if you don't use it you lose
it, particularly your brain. The more you use it the more logical and brainier you
are. Could that be true?
Open Question
Exponential growth, are there any true in it ?
And the doubling in time theorem answers
One of the most basic maths we thought, we understood to be
the fundamental true in the process of exponential growth and its progress.
Somehow we can't get it in our head.
For if we could, than we would 'see' why the same amount of food we intake, cost
twice as much today than ten years ago. How could that be true ?
For example, rice cost twice as much today, compared with prices ten
years ago, and yet world food output has increased more than ten
years ago; whilst there was no exponential lost in arable land worldwide.
Was our maths wrong ?
We add the total money in the banks, the food we consume, the production of goods we use, the population and housing growth rate in
percentage term. We say the growth is exponential.
Money in the bank grows at a percentage term, electricity production and usage
growth at a steady percentage term worldwide. This growth goes on and on, year
after year, and for ever... Is there any true in it ?
The fact is exponential growth in time for quantity to increase in size is a fixed constant.
So time is the factor need for quantity to double in size, by say 100% is also
a constant.
Let's take population growth for example. We increase the height of
buildings, if population doubled in the city, and doubled the number of bus on
the road. We are better off, but are we ?
There is a sad fundamental true between percentage growth,
and the doubling ratio by the law of nature.
For example, take the size of a one cubic centimetre cube, with a cross section
of one square centimetre. That is, if we cut one face of the cube, that face is one
square centimetre, right?
Now compare this to a cube which has doubled in size, a cube with two
centimetres on each side.
Its cross-sectional area would be 2 x 2 (or 4) square centimetres, and thus its volume
will be 2 x 2 x 2 (or 8) cubic centimetres. For the same density it would have 4
times the cross section and 8 times heavier.
The true is its volume and weight multiplies much more than the corresponding
increases in cross-sectional areas; as the true nature of the exponential growth
does not reveal itself, until variable rates of growth are considered.
And historically, the ancient Chinese agrarian wisdom applies the same principle
to land and population growth, resources and waste, and the climate.
Bacterium in a Jar
During the 1970s energy crisis, and again during the 1980s food mountain crisis, that researchers and
their physics professor A Bartlett, highlighted their untimely analogy with bacteria growth --
the 'Bacterium in a Jar' paradigm.
Bacteria grow by division, not unlike human beings. One bacterium becomes 2 and
2 becomes 4 and 4 becomes 8 and 8 becomes 16, and so on, and on...
Suppose the division time of this bacterium is 1 minute, the steady growth rate.
And 1 of this bacteria got into an empty bottle at 11:00am, and that grow start till the bottle was full of bacteria at 12:00 noon.
The professor asks you to consider this scenario, and outline the type of
hypothesized chain events.... When was the bottle half-full?
It was found that at 2 minutes before noon, the bottle was only a quarter
(1/4) full, and three quarter (3/4) of that bottle was still empty... What happened ?
Question Time
If you were the intelligent bacterium in that bottle,
what time would you realize that soon you will run out of space?
Can you sense the danger at say 11:56am when the bottle was only 6% full (1/16
full) and had 94% of open space ?
Or suppose at 11:58am, one of you intelligent guys (bacteria) suddenly
realise that soon you will run out of space, and start getting your brain to
work.
Luck was on your side that at the nick of time @ 11:59am when the bottle was
half full, you have the technology ready to transport your people (bacteria) to
2 new empty bottles nearby, with 3 times the space that you had ever
known.
You intelligence bacteria are smart as now with three bottles, you knew that if you
don't do something now will fill them up again.
The professor asks you again ...
Suppose you are the human being (not bacteria), with your advance
technology, and seven continents including subcontinents. When will you
fill them up ?
Would you realize the size of your population say... ?
@ 11:56am -- 3 billion is too much?
Or 11:58am -- 5 billion is too little?
What about 9 billion in a generation's time ?
Do you still wonder why the same food cost more now !
Global warming will not annihilate mankind but man will...
which does made me wondered? Are we doing Iraq a favour?
Palaeontologist turned
climate science Tim Flannery in his best selling book 'The weather makers'
questioned the readers: What do you propose to replace Kyoto protocol with,
my answer is simple, if we reduce world population by half, we can reduce
emissions by a quarter, in accordant with the ancient Chinese agrarian wisdom
on livestock, any population which sustains a negative rate of growth will
halve and any population which sustains a positive rate of growth will
double. Human beings are merely a part of the transient species, climate
science writers are merely cashing-in on that query.
We would be unrealistic to assume a continued increase in food supply to support
an exponentially growing population; as the true nature of the exponential
growth in population does not reveal itself until variable rates of growth are
considered.
Zero population grow in which a population remain stable, occurs only when
the birth and death rates are equal; our species has wrought on the Earth's
surface ever more rapid in our generation than the last.
In recent years, over population combine with civil wars and
policy-induced famines have sowed the seed in seaborne piracy against transport vessels, a
warning shoot in the bulbous bow for what lay ahead tomorrow.
The final frontier - a reality check
The nearest possible 'jar' is Mars, which is slightly smaller than
Earth, and it rotates with an axial tilted about the same as the Earth -
thus, it has a 24 hours and 37 minutes clock, and a season last almost twice
as long as on Earth, with a 669 Martian days in a year, and a gravity 38% of
that on Earth.
The Martian soil is rich in phosphates, carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and
hydrogen, as well as rich in minerals needed for crop growing -- which is
considerably richer than most land on Earth.
Mars also has none of the Earth's sources of corrosion, which made Mars
ideal for large scale greenhouses farming with genetically modified plants.
Though Mars has fierce gales, but the wind exerts little force because the
atmospheric pressure is only 1% of that on Earth - making a 100 mile per hour
hurricane on Mars feels like a 1 mile per hour breeze on Earth.
But the atmospheric pressure is far too thin for human species and their
pets, though the prospect exists for large scale migration in a generation's
time if we start getting our brain to work now.
Author
©Copyright
10/06/2010
All rights reserved.
Mantra: You can't cure brain death but you can prevent it from dying.
Appendix:
(1) In 1820, China's population was 381 million and Europe as a whole was 302
million (133 million was in Western Europe and 169 million diasporas the rest of
Europe), plus about 10 million migrated to America (together with 1.5 million of
their African black
slaves), and Mexico then had a population of 109 million, and India had 207
million people, in addition to a floating population of her colonial masters
and their families, and Hispanic or Latino population totalling 21.5 million or
49% of the than total population in Latin America.
We were lucky once as a result of fertilizer advancements, the estimated population
outside of China than not even half of a billion people.
According to ancient agrarian records, historically, Chinese imperial navy
has been surveying the outside world every few hundred years. The last reported
survey was 1442 or the Ming dynasty; indicate that there was no cause of alarm.
Europe was in a state of recurring famines throughout, in addition to the
perennial issues of bubonic plague, and the inter-states religious warfare,
leading to the Westphalia Peace Treaties 200 years later (or 1648).
But toward the end of the recurring Black Death pandemic, the resilient
population of Europe bounced back, and within a generation, population soon
exceed food yield, war and famines were the recurring issues within the
inter-state systems.
Even in those days people been trying to draw
attention to the potential dangers of food yield and over population, examples of such as reverend
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834).
Migration has always been Homo sapiens’ survival strategy, and the great scale
migratory movement was unprecedented during the 19th century, as a result of
massive famines again throughout Europe, and thus deforested 4 out of 7 continents
for cattle and population growth.
And towards the eve of the new millennia, the biotic potential on humans has been
tilted as a result of advances in medical science and nutritional intakes -
mainly because of improved healthcare and reduction in infant mortality.
Our life expectancy has increased from the average 70 years to the now expected
80 years. Thus since we cerebrated on the eve of the new millennia with 6
billion people on Earth, another billion people has join in the cerebration by 2010.
Advances in medical science through the understanding of
radioactive material does not senesce (age) - though it decays and the half-life of
decay remains the same. Research has found that ageing is actually a disease
which can be cure, has lead to the development of an immortal mouse -- the
'Methuselah' mouse.
For the first time in human history, ageing is not (dying)
inevitable, though progressive loss of physical robustness that happens with
age. In other words, as we grow older, the probability of dying in the next year
would stay almost the same.
And with the advances in stem cell research, the
capability in restoring worn out or damaged body parts with stem cells is a
reality, and the potential to further develop into any of the approximately 100s
different mature cell types in the human body - muscles, heart, skin cells, liver, arteries and so on.
Further, researchers have found multiple ways to stop people from going
downhill, research figures indicated that long health-span people are mentally
exceptionally active, either involved in research and studies or with a passion
for art, music or intricate hobbies, as oppose to inactive illiterate.
(2)
Population growth is mathematically linked to resources and the climate, and
China is the only nation on Earth doing something about it. Take the biosphere and the climate for example.
The natural absorption rate of organic carbon in the
soil mantle is estimated 42 million tons annually. Human discharge of organic
carbon had reached 85 million tons per annum – doubled the earth's natural
absorption ability.
The volume of solid domestic waste discharged in the Earth’s biosphere has
reached a geological figure, over 400 million tons per year. Such an enormous
amount of waste affects global geochemical cycles, further contribute to the
shifting in climates and trophic levels (food chains) in the ecosystem.
(3) Bacterium in a Jar Paradigm
The nearest possible 'jar' is Mars, which is slightly smaller than Earth, and it
rotates with an axis tilted about the same as the Earth -- thus, it has a 24
hours and 37 minutes clock and 669 Martian days in a year.
The seasons last almost twice as long as on Earth, and
will allow genetically modified plants to growth on the Martian soil
which is rich in phosphates, but the
atmospheric pressure is far too thin for humans, though the prospect
exist for large scale migration in a generation's time.
The gravity on Mars is 38% of that on Earth, though Mars has fierce gales, but
the wind exerts little force because the atmospheric pressure is only 1% of that
on Earth - making a 100 mile per hour hurricane on Mars feel like a 1 mile per
hour breeze on Earth.
And with absent most of the Earth's sources of corrosion,
it is
suitable for large scale greenhouses farming, since the soil is considerably
richer than most land on Earth. Martian soil has plenty of
carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and hydrogen, as well as rich in minerals needed for
crop growing.
There are also mountains on Mars, that are three times
taller than Mount Everest -- Olympus for example, which is some 16 miles high, and is the largest
mountain in the solar system. There are also vast ancient volcanoes and canyons
three times deeper than the Grand Canyon.
You intelligent bacteria are smart as now with Mars as well, you knew that if
you don't do something now will fill it up again. But suppose you are the human
being (not bacteria), with your advance technology, and seven continents
including subcontinents, when will you fill them up?
Now that you will have the technology ready in a generation's time -- but what
intelligent promise can you give to your own species, that you wouldn't fill up
Mars as well in a generation's time?
( 4) Ecological Footprint
The term ‘ecological footprint’ is to let people know how much they consume of
nature’s resources and their waste discharged back on Earth.
In ancient agricultural civilization, the term 'mere subsistence' indicate 2-3
acres of arable land per head was need, in order to avoid the most gruesome
famines during draught, for a given population in that nation - arable land not
global hectares per capita.
In the 1950s, China is said to have an ecological deficit -- the number of acres
of arable land needed to support her population in case of draught, there was
massive famine. Since adopted the food yield and population growth formula, and
recent world food and credit crisis has again proved the ancient
wisdom.
In a research on ecology and agriculture at Cornell University and US National
Research Institute on Food and Nutrition study titled 'land, food and population
growth' indicated that the world will have to reduce her population by
two-third, the maximum sustainable ecology in the US is 200 million.
World Footprint
Today, humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 Planet Earth to provide the resources
we need and to absorb our waste we discharged back on earth, that is -- it takes 1 year
and 4 months at today's rate.
In a generation's time, we will need the equivalent of two Planet Earths to
support our existing life style, while pH neutral water sources are depleting
fast due to food and population growth, and it's going to be a 'one world one
dream same nightmare' scenario.
(5) The Kyoto protocol was designed to cap global warming,
but common sense tell us that emission trading only benefit the seller. If by
selling more emissions could mitigate global warming, than selling hunger would
benefit the poor, what a tautology.
(6) Since the 1960s, China has adopted a population
growth and food yield formula, base on population which sustains a
negative rate of growth will halve; and by 2050 both human induced emissions and
population issue can be significantly rectified. Recent world food crisis had already pay
dividend to an educated and prosper nation, a shock to the critics.
(7) Ecological Footprint
In the case of coffee, about 25 million small farmers depend directly on coffee
production in over 50 countries. With increasing use of fertilisers and
pesticides since the 1980s, has led to over supply of coffee, as a result coffee
farmers’ income has declined by two-third (about 70%) by 2001.
(8) Little Ice Ages
The periods of little ice age began in the early 14th century, and flickered on
and off before peaking in late 17th century, and finally releasing its grip some
150 years ago.
At the height of the little ice age, the Baltic Sea froze over and there was
widespread famine across Europe. By 1420s Chinese surveying ships headed the
Arctic via the north coast of Greenland through to North America.
(8) Pseudoscience Tale
Pseudoscience tale of the ocean circulation system switch, that colder water
dissolves carbon dioxide faster than warmer water, in order to controlling the
ocean conveyer belt on/off switch.
And suggest the building of a city in Greenland, where human activities will
force the ancient glacial ice mountains down to sea, which is enough to lower
sea temperature worldwide, to restore climate equilibrium.
(10) During the 1980s physics professor Albert A. Bartlett
at University of Colorado highlighted the untimely analogy with bacteria growth
and the energy crisis (see table).
(11) Bio-Capacity
The natural absorption rate of organic carbon in
the soil mantle is estimated 42 million tons annually. Human discharge of
organic carbon had reached 85 million tons per annum – doubled the earth's
natural absorption ability.
The volume of solid domestic waste discharged in the Earth’s biosphere has
reached a geological figure (landfill site figure), over 400 million tons per
year. Such an enormous amount of waste affects global geochemical cycles;
further contribute to the shifting in climates and trophic levels (food chains)
in the ecosystem.
(12) The worldwide animal feed industry consumed 635 million tons of feed
(compound feed equivalent) in 2006, with an annual growth rate of about 2%.
Review Sources:
Club of Rome
Club of Rome Agenda
Global Depopulation Programme
Population Control
Wall Street Journal
Global Famine
|
Population Growth Rate |
Population Doubled |
| @
1 % |
in
70 years |
|
@ 1.5 % |
in
47 years |
| @
2 % |
in
35 years |
|
@ 2.5 % |
in
28 years |
| @
3 % |
in
23 years |
|
@ 3.5 % |
in
20 years |
| @
4 % |
in
18 years |
What's the moral in these stories?
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